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Poll: Illinois voters back referendum issues

Illinois voters strongly support the idea of increasing the minimum wage and raising the state income tax on millionaires — positions that could help Democrats drive turnout in November, a Chicago Tribune poll shows.

The survey also found that voters like the notion of placing term limits on state lawmakers, a concept that Republican governor challenger Bruce Rauner tried to put on the fall ballot before the courts struck down the effort.

The upshot is that Democrats, led by House Speaker Michael Madigan, and Republicans, led by Rauner, had the right idea in trying to load up the Nov. 4 ballot with referendum questions aimed at generating excitement among the types of voters also more likely to cast a ballot in favor of their respective parties’ candidates.

Voters will be asked what they think about the minimum wage increase and the so-called millionaire tax, though the results will merely gauge the level of support for the ideas and will not have the force of law.

The poll found 69 percent of Illinois voters back an increase in the state’s $8.25-an-hour minimum wage to $10 by Jan. 1 for adults over age 18. Only 27 percent oppose the proposal, while 5 percent had no opinion. The statewide poll, conducted among 800 registered voters Sept. 3-12, had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

The minimum wage issue has been a major campaign plank of Democrats nationally ahead of the midterm election, promoted by home state President Barack Obama at a time of increased income inequality.

In Illinois, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has made boosting the minimum wage a consistent refrain in his re-election battle against Rauner. It’s an attempt to reinforce the symbolism of the Republican equity investor’s personal wealth and raise doubt as to whether he can relate to lower-income workers.

Rauner has done himself no favors on the issue. At a December forum in Moline during the Republican primary campaign, the candidate said he wanted the state minimum wage rolled back to the federal rate of $7.25 an hour.

Under fire from his GOP opponents, Rauner in January said he would support an increase in the federal wage to Illinois’ rate or higher, or would back a hike in the state minimum wage if several pro-business initiatives were approved by lawmakers. Even then, he acknowledged to a Bloomington radio station that month that he had at times supported a repeal of the minimum wage.

Democratic legislative leaders had sought to increase the state’s minimum wage in the spring session of the General Assembly but ran into opposition from business interests. So instead, Democrats put a nonbinding question on the fall ballot, a move seen as a way to boost turnout among those more likely to vote Democratic.

Among Quinn supporters, the poll found that 90 percent back a minimum wage hike compared with only 7 percent who oppose it. By contrast, 50 percent of Rauner backers oppose an increase in the wage rate compared with 43 percent who want to see it boosted.

In addition, among the 8 percent of voters who said they are undecided in the governor’s race, 67 percent back a minimum wage hike while 29 percent are opposed. That cuts in Quinn’s favor.

The survey found support for a minimum wage hike in all geographic areas of the state, from 88 percent of Chicago voters to 55 percent Downstate. In Chicago, a re-election-seeking Mayor Rahm Emanuel has vowed to move forward with a city minimum wage increase to $13 an hour regardless of what lawmakers do in Springfield after the election.

Nearly 9 in 10 Democrats favor a wage rate increase. Republicans are split, with 51 percent opposing it and 42 percent supporting it. But among independent voters, traditionally a swing voting bloc, 65 percent favor a wage rate increase and 30 percent oppose it.

Even a majority of voters who consider themselves either very or fairly conservative — 54 percent — backed a higher minimum wage in Illinois, compared with 41 percent who oppose it.

Poll respondent Elena Johnson, a full-time baby sitter for her grandchildren, said the minimum wage should be increased to fairly pay workers.

“Everything has gone up, and everything is still going up, and I think that people that work in the fast-food restaurants — they do have families and it’s hard to manage paying bills and then buying food — food is expensive now,” said Johnson, 49, of Chicago.

But Elizabeth McCormick, a poll respondent from Westchester, said increasing wages could lead to businesses closing their doors — and to layoffs.

“You raise the minimum wages, businesses close, people lose their jobs,” said McCormick, 73, who is retired from work at a sporting goods company.

As was the case with minimum wage, Democrats who control the General Assembly also failed to act during the spring session on Madigan’s proposed state constitutional amendment asking voters to impose a 3 percentage point “surcharge” on incomes of more than $1 million. The extra revenue would be distributed to schools on a per-student basis.

Because the Illinois Constitution requires a flat-rate income tax for all residents, Democrats would have needed to put the issue on the ballot as a proposed constitutional amendment. Since that requires a hefty majority of lawmakers to get on the ballot as a binding proposal, Madigan’s Democrats opted instead to put the issue before voters as an advisory referendum.

The poll found 56 percent of voters approved of the so-called millionaire’s tax compared with 36 percent who opposed it. Only 9 percent had no opinion.

The proposal had the backing of nearly 7 in 10 voters in Chicago and nearly 6 in 10 in suburban Cook County. But in the five collar counties, which have long trended Republican, the gap narrowed to 54 percent in favor and 40 percent opposed. Downstate, with more conservative voters, it narrowed further, to 49 percent support and 41 percent oppose.

“It’s not productive,” said poll respondent Steven Rains, 66, a retired auto sales industry worker from Granite City, near St. Louis. “Rich people are OK as long as they’re helping out. But we’ve all gotten greedy. They’ll look for (a) cheaper place and leave Illinois.”

But Marcia Redmond, a poll respondent from Chicago, said millionaires should pay a little more in taxes given the many tax breaks for which they qualify.

“If we’re supposed to be the United States — that’s made for all Americans. I think those who make their fair share should pay what they need to pay,” said Redmond, 70, a retired IRS employee.

While a majority of voters of all income ranges expressed support for the extra tax on millionaires, the question received its greatest support among people with household incomes of more than $100,000 — 61 percent in favor and 33 percent opposed.

The ballot issue, aside from potentially increasing Democratic turnout, also provides Democrats with another subtle reminder of Rauner’s wealth in an election that has centered on their class warfare battle against the Republican governor candidate.

Among Rauner supporters, 58 percent oppose the millionaire’s tax while 35 percent approve. Among Quinn backers, 73 percent are in favor of it while only 17 percent oppose it. And among undecided voters, 53 percent support the proposal while 35 percent oppose it.

Rauner had sought to have his own proposal on the ballot: a petition-driven initiative to ask voters to change the state constitution to limit lawmakers to eight years of service.

But in a legal challenge led by an attorney with long-standing ties to Madigan, a Cook County Circuit Court judge ruled that the proposal went beyond the constitution’s limit on citizen-initiative proposals. The Illinois Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal. That left Rauner with little more than a campaign pledge to support like-minded lawmakers willing to limit their own terms.

Term limit proposals increasingly have gained favor among voters in Tribune polls, and Rauner’s concept is no different. Fully 71 percent of voters approve of an eight-year limit on legislators’ service, while 22 percent disapproved.

Strong majority support for such a plan crossed all partisan, ideological, age, race and gender demographics. Voters who said they were very conservative embraced the idea 80 percent to 15 percent, while those who said they were moderate to liberal backed it 68 percent to 26 percent.

Mike Simon, a small-business owner from Glen Ellyn, said limiting legislators’ terms is a no-brainer.

“These people get elected to office and then never leave,” said the 55-year-old Simon, a poll respondent. Term limits, he said, would make it “about public service, not serving oneself.”

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mmanchir@tribune.com